By Allen Smith
After the 2024 regular season, but before the Big Ten Wrestling Championships at the University of Maryland, I wrote an article titled “Chasing 170”, about the 2024 Nittany Lion wrestling team’s chances of breaking the team scoring record of 170 points set by the 1997 Iowa Hawkeyes. To fully understand “Chasing 170: The SEQUEL” it would be beneficial to read that article, which resides on the Penn State Wrestling Club website. The data, analyses, thoughts and comments contained within “Chasing 170” will help readers of this follow-up article understand its content.
We all know now that Penn State won the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championship in Kansas City, and in staggering fashion, with the closest competing team, Cornell, a chasm away as the margin of victory was exactly 100 points. My plan is to take the reader through logical steps. First, I will take you through the seeding of the Penn State wrestlers in comparison to the end-of-season “rankings” that I used to write the initial article, which for two wrestlers was dramatic. That will be followed by the predicted Penn State scoring, based on seeds. From there, The Penn State actual performance in Kansas City will be broken down. Finally, a comparison of the 2024 Penn State Nittany Lions to the 1997 Iowa Hawkeyes will be made, and then final comments.
2024 NCAA Seeding
In the weeks that followed my original article, Penn State wrestlers, two specifically, were impacted dramatically regarding their placement in the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships brackets. Braeden Davis wrestled an amazing Big Ten Wrestling Championship tournament at the University of Maryland on his way to the 125 pound title. Along the way he beat three former All-Americans to win that title.
The performance bolted Davis to the top seed at the NCAA Championships. At the same Big Ten Wrestling Championship, Carter Starocci intentionally took two injury defaults to protect an injured leg that occurred at the final regular season dual meet. These were official losses despite his not wrestling, and impacted the math used for seeding. The losses affected his ultimate seed at the NCAA Championships, where he landed as the 9-seed. One could argue that this was an injustice for the three-time returning National Champion, particularly since the #1 seed could be a quarter-final opponent, and the #2 seed a semi-final opponent. This topic would be discussed at length, rightfully so, for the week between the release of the brackets and the start of the NCAA Wrestling National Championships. I offer a practical reason for the seed – “it’s math based on fixed criteria” – but also offer the newly-written “Subjective Criteria” that could be used by the NCAA Wrestling Committee in such circumstances to slightly change a seed, in this case possibly more Starocci to the other half of the bracket. That is a story for another day.
In addition to the two wrestlers noted, the Penn State contingent landed largely where expected. The seeds at the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships were as follows; Braeden Davis (#1), Aaron Nagao (#10), Beau Bartlett (#2), Tyler Kasak (#7), Levi Haines (#1), Mitchell Mesenbrink (#2), Carter Starocci (#9), Bernie Truax (#6), Aaron Brooks (#1), and Greg Kerkvliet (#1). It was, without question, the strongest Penn State team in their storied history, top-to-bottom. That potential would manifest itself, as we know now, in a wrestling performance for the ages.
Playing what-if is always a dangerous game.
2024 Penn State Predicted Scoring
The 2024 Penn State wrestling team scoring potential, one week before the tournament, could be evaluated by looking no further than the wrestler’s seeds. Without the benefit of hindsight, it is the best starting metric for evaluating a team’s potential, giving a benchmark for Placement Points and Advancement Points, and leaving only Bonus Point scoring to “guesstimate”.
For Placement Points, using the values from a first place to an eight place All-American finish, in order; 16, 12, 10, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3, Penn State would be predicted to finish at 98 Placement Points. Historically, Penn State’s highest total Placement Points were in 2023 (92 points) and 2018 (91 points). 98 predicted points for 2024 was indeed rarified air. But again, it is a predicted value, and points at the NCAA Championships, in fact any wrestling event, must be earned on the mat.
For Advancement Points, the accumulated predicted points are easy. Finalists earn 4 points along the way, third and fourth place finishers earn 3.5 points, fifth and sixth place finishers earn 3 points, seventh and eighth place finishers earn 2.5 points and round-of-12 wrestlers earn 2 points. Adding up the predicted Advancement Points and we arrive at 33.5 points. For comparison, Penn State’s highest Advancement Point total ever occurred in 2012 with 35.5 points. However, this is an apples-to-oranges comparison as 2012 was the last year that wrestlers could earn a “free” Advancement Point in the championship bracket and ½ point in the wrestleback bracket by winning their next bout after a “bye”.
In way of explanation, the NCAA considered the 2012 championship bracket to be a 64-man bracket, with one match in the initial round and all other wrestlers getting a “bye”. Winning a next bout after a bye added an extra or “free” bye point, to be added to the Advancement Points. In 2013 this language was removed and the extra bye point abolished. Ever since, the NCAA considers the brackets as a 32- man bracket with one pigtail. In 2012, Penn State had eight such free Advancement Points, making 27.5 points (35.5 minus 8) for that team a much fairer comparison. All of that taken as consideration, the 2023 Penn State team had the current Advancement Point high using current scoring rules, at 29.5 points. The 2024 predicted value, at 33.5 points (see above), at four points higher, does not seem like much, but as we now know, it makes a world of difference. Cael has said previously that every half-point at the NCAA Championships is crucial. Hard to argue!
Bonus Points, the last of the three scoring categories, requires assumptions. Penn State’s highest Bonus Point total ever was 2017, when the Lions scored 32.5, the only time in history they were over 30 points. In “Chasing 170”, one of the three keys noted in setting a new team scoring record was scoring over 30 points. At the time there were two factors driving my thinking. First the idea that the core of this team, around for both 2022 and 2023, only scored 16.5 and 16 Bonus Points respectively in those two years. My opposing thought was that the three-point takedown would benefit Penn State’s offensive-minded team and cause more Major Decision and Technical Fall wins. The latter was the direction leaned, which was proven during the tournament, and is discussed in detail later in this article.
So in total, the predicted scoring for the three categories summed up to 161.5 points. This was within shouting distance of the 170 mark, so something “better” than predicted scoring had to happen. And happen it did, as will be discussed next.
The Lions Break 170 in Kansas City!!
During the third weekend in March, 2024, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, the Penn State Nittany Lions set a new NCAA Wrestling Championship scoring record, notching 172.5 points to surpass the Iowa Hawkeye record of 170 points scored in 1997. Pundits, including me, knew it was possible, but even then the words monumental, within reach, attainable and others were used cautiously by anyone writing about this subject. Never were the words probable, expected or anticipated used. My experience based on many discussions was half an ounce of cautious optimism, but honestly most thought it unlikely. At the end, it was an amazing result by an amazing group of young men under the brightest of lights, the NCAA Wrestling Championships.
The breakdown of Penn State’s final team scores, by category, was as follows; Placement Points – 105, Advancement Points – 33.5, and Bonus Points – 34 for a total of 172.5 points. All three are Penn State’s highest all time, and all contributed in a significant way. Here’s more on each:
Actual Placement Points, at 105, was higher than the predicted 98. The back-stories to this number are many. Braeden Davis, the talented true freshman for the Lions at 125, one and a half weeks removed from winning the toughest qualifier tournament in the country, lost two heart-breaking bouts in the topsy-turvy world of this weight class in 2024, where no fewer than a dozen wrestlers could have stood atop the podium as all of the top guys jockeyed for position throughout the entire season. Noone separated themselves from the pack. Four wrestlers not seeded top-8 in this weight class ended as All- Americans, tied for highest of any weight class in at least the last seven years (I did not go back farther) of NCAA Wrestling Championships, where it happened only one other time. The future for young Davis is VERY bright.
Another story worth noting is that of Carter Starocci, whose seeding was impacted by two injury defaults at the Big Ten Wrestling Championship. While ending the regular season as the consensus number one ranked wrestler, he landed in the 174 bracket at the NCAA Wrestling Championships as the 9 seed.
Starocci fought his way, leg wrap and all, through the brackets, beating the number one and number two seeds along the way before posting a final’s win to finish as National Champion, the fourth such honor for the talented Lion. At the time, he was the sixth college wrestler to achieve this amazing feat.
The third story is just as amazing, as true freshman Tyler Kasak finished third in a most unusual way. Kasak became the ninth college wrestler all-time (if my source is correct) to lose his first bout, and then win seven in a row through wrestlebacks to claim third place. This feat is almost as rare as the number of four-time champions to put this in perspective. Starting as the #7 seed, Kasak beat the #1, #3 and #5 seeds along the way to earn his spot in history. He is the first true freshman to accomplish the feat.
Before the season started, Kasak was a planned redshirt, and back-up to Beau Bartlett at 141 pounds before moving up one weight, filling in for Shayne Van Ness for the season at 149 pounds. Historically speaking, John Lange, in 1998, was another Nittany Lion to achieve this feat, sharing the accolade with Kasak.
These facts and more led to the seven point swing in Placement Points. Overall, nine of ten Lions wrestled at or better than their seed. Starocci, Kasak and Truax finished higher than their seed.
Advancement Points ended identical to the predicted value, at 33.5 points, becoming the new standard for the Penn State team all-time. Adding this to the Placement Points, and we have 138.5 points, or 31.5 points shy of 170 total team points.
Bonus Points, for me was a pleasant surprise and a significant factor in the final tally. Never before nor since the Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf, Vincenzo Joseph, Bo Nickel and others onslaught at the 2017 NCAA Wrestling Championships, which set the Penn State bonus point team record at 32.5 points, have the Lions exceeded 30 points in a National Championship. Enter 2024, and the latest version of Penn State wrestling tallied 34 POINTS!! This total was the result of six Falls (12 points), eight Technical Falls (12 points) and ten Major Decisions (10 points). While every bonus point win contributed to the total of 34, and should be commended, here’s a few moments from the tournament, when looking at my notes, that stand out; 1) Beau Bartlett’s consecutive FALLS in the second and third rounds, the second with 11 seconds to go in the bout, 2) Levi Haines FALL in the semifinals in Sudden Victory to go along with two TECHNICAL FALLS and one MAJOR DECISION, 3) Tyler Kasak’s five bonus point wins, all in wrestlebacks, and 4) Aaron Brooks’ first four bouts ending as either TECHNICAL FALLS (2) or FALLS (2). Mention should also be made that Mitchell Mesenbrink, the Energizer Bunny of the team, also had three bonus point wins.
At the end, 105 Placement Points, plus 33.5 Advancement Points, plus 34 Bonus Points equals 172.5 total TEAM POINTS for the Nittany Lions. Even though not every wrestler reached their personal goal, it was an overall team performance to behold, one that all 37 of the rostered wrestlers could be proud.
2024 Nittany Lions vs the 1997 Iowa Hawkeyes
Re-reading “Chasing 170” and I am reminded of the tournament scoring differences, 1997 to 2024. In no way should such a topic diminish either team’s performance, as both deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as extraordinary. Without a desire to knock either team down a peg by making excuses, it is far better to raise both teams up for their performances, which is my hope below.
The 1997 Iowa Hawkeyes outperformed their predicted Placement Points, calculated using the wrestler’s seeds, by an amazing 37 points. If such a metric was kept for the NCAA Wrestling Championships (it is not) this surely would be the highest ever. Secondly, the Hawkeye’s Bonus Points for the 1997 NCAA Wrestling Championships, at 33 points, is surely near the top all-time too. As a team, all ten wrestlers wrestled at or better than their seed. Placement Points, for places third through eighth were slightly lower than today’s values, which changed in 2001 to the values used today. While in practice, this would have raised their total by five points, this Hawkeye team also benefitted from the Bye Point rule, which added Advancement Points for wrestlers winning their next bout after a bye, a rule that was removed in 2013. This was discussed earlier in this article. With eight All-Americans, this Iowa team tied the record for most individual National Champions (5), and had six finalists. All in all, a performance for the ages…or at least for 27 years.
The 2024 Penn State Nittany Lions were equally amazing. They outperformed their predicted Placement Points by seven points, while placing six wrestlers in the finals, four of which won individual championships. The 105 Placement Points is the highest ever in NCAA Wrestling Championship history. Also with eight All-Americans, Penn State had a Third Place finisher and Fifth Place finisher to go with the finalists. At 34 Bonus Points earned, Penn State has to be at least in the top couple all-time at the NCAA Wrestling Championships, if not the highest. This team faced obstacles that could have easily derailed this record; losing their 149 pound starter early in the season, their star 174 pounder suffering an injury at the final regular season dual, or even the current 149 pounder losing in the first round at the NCAA Wrestling Championship, yet this team prevailed.
One could make the point that the three-point takedown had an impact on bonus point scoring for Penn State at Kansas City. That point would not be wrong; the new rule did play a part. However, it would be a disservice to only bring up this single rule change when college wrestling has made dozens and dozens of other rule changes in the past 27 years. Frankly, most of college folkstyle wrestling is unchanged in that time, but enough differences exist to make such an argument – that this team only has the record because of the three-point takedown – without merit. Worthy of discussion mind you (in my opinion), but not worth minimizing the accomplishments of this Lion team.
To get closest to an apples-to-apples comparison, I plugged the 1997 Iowa Hawkeye results into the scoring model in play currently. As expected the data showed the closeness of both team’s performances. The 2024 Penn State score is obviously 172.5, while the Iowa Hawkeye score was 172. That is close!!!! This calculation may be the most telling in this entire article, showing that both teams are worthy of similar accolades.
Not mentioned yet is the fact that Penn State had a second wrestler become a four-time champion when Aaron Brooks won in the finals to become the seventh wrestler ALL-TIME to earn that distinction. I will leave you with an eligibility breakdown of those that hit the mats in Kansas City representing Penn State. There were five seniors, two sophomores and two freshmen, and three of the seniors still have a “covid year” if they so wish. With the talent in the current Penn State room and the incoming “class of 2024”, the future is bright.
