By Allen Smith
At the 1997 NCAA Wrestling Championships, held on the campus of the University of Northern Iowa, the Iowa Hawkeyes set a team scoring record that stands to this day – 170 team points. But why write an article about another team’s scoring record? Well, the topic is out there right now – EVERYWHERE. It is likely some casual fans haven’t read or heard the 2024 version of this subject, i.e. Penn State’s chances
of breaking the record this March in Kansas City, but I am positive the die-hard fans have. And the closer
we get to the post-season, the more this topic will be broached.
This year is not the first time since 1997 that team scoring at the national tournament became a “hot” topic. I remember discussions prior to the post season during several of Penn State’s last 10 National Championships, and during 2010 when Iowa fans hit the airwaves with their team’s chances that year of breaking their own record. Problem was, for all of those years, the source of the fan hype was mostly from a place of bravado and bluster. The discussions I remember didn’t pass the reasonable test, meaning that even after the data-geeks (I’m one!) put a pencil to the projected results, the assumptions were so over-the-top, that a new scoring record was nothing more than a pipe dream. This proved to be the case, as the highest score at the national tournament since 1997 is Oklahoma State’s 153 in 2005, a far cry from 170. Enter 2024, and this year’s top dog, Penn State, appears to have a chance, at least on paper!
But here I sit, writing an article I said to myself many, many times before that I would never write. It just is not a subject that is important to me. Winning the team championship is important, as it represents the sweat, determination, training, and so on – basically the character-building journey necessary to stand alone as champions. Individual performance is important too, for the same reasons, as each wrestler has a personal goal of being an individual champion, and at least for me – the entertainment value of watching Penn State wrestlers chase these dreams is high. I love the Big Ten Championships and the NCAA Championships, watching each Penn State guy wrestle with so much on the line. I follow the team scores too, if only to see how Penn State is stacking up to the competition. I remember those moments etched in my mind forever – Bo Nickal’s pin of Myles Martin at the 2018 Championships, James English’s unlikely All-American finish at the 2014 Championship, Anthony Cassar’s two wins in 2019 against an “unbeatable” Gable Steveson and an ultimate individual championship – and dozens and dozens of other examples too numerous to mention here. I am trying to say that my enjoyment has come from the wrestling, not the anticipation of some scoring “record”. But I will trudge on.
I consider my efforts here one of education and awareness. Bringing out the information that is buried in the results of the 1997 Iowa Hawkeye performance, as well as the potential of the current Penn State team, all the while acknowledging the traps and pit-falls of such an analysis, is my hope for this article. My goal here is to inform, nothing more. So here goes.
History
At the 1997 NCAA Wrestling Championships on the campus of the University of Northern Iowa, a scant 90 miles from Iowa City, the Iowa Hawkeyes set the NCAA Wrestling Championship team scoring record – 170 of them to be exact. I will dissect that number, and in the end talk about what it would take to break that record. Mostly what are presented are irrefutable FACTS. Tournament scoring will be discussed, so hopefully you have at a minimum, a basic understanding. Following that, maybe I’ll have the courage to share my personal thoughts.
Historically speaking, Iowa has the top FOUR team point scores at the National Championships. Along with the 170 points in 1997, the Hawkeyes scored 158 points in 1986, 157 points in 1991, and 155 points in 1983. Oklahoma State scored 153 points in 2005 for the 5 th highest score all-time. Iowa sits in 6 th with 149 points in 1992, with Penn State sitting in 7 th , scoring 146.5 points in 2017. Additionally, Penn State shows up 9 th , 11 th , 13 th and 18 th on the all-time scoring list when considering top-20 scores all-time. While the scoring is bunched a bit from the 2 nd highest team score ever, down through the record book (158 points, 157 points, 155, 153, 149, 146.5 and so on), the highest point total is a vast 12 points higher – 170 points vs 158 points. Make no mistake; what the Hawkeyes accomplished in 1997 was an amazing feat.
Tournament Scoring Changes
I’ll start with the topic of tournament scoring. If the rules in 1997 were identical to 2024, I would skip right over this subject, but they are not and certainly worth noting. A dramatic change happened in 1979 when Placement Points and the right to be called All-American changed from the top-6 wrestlers to the top-8 at the NCAA National Championships. The new Placement Points in 1979 were, from 1st through 8th Place; 16, 12, 9, 7, 5, 3, 2, 1. These Placement Points were in play in 1997 when Iowa set the record. In 2001, the Placement Points awarded changed again. From 1st to 8th Place, they were; 16, 12, 10, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3. Today’s wrestlers would earn MORE points for their team than the wrestlers in 1997 for any placement from 3rd through 8th as follows; 3rd (1 point more). 4th (2 points), 5th (2 points), 6th (3 points), 7th (2 points) and 8th (2 points), while the first two places remain the same.
Advancement points also changed. In 1997, when Iowa set the record, an extra Advancement Point could be earned in the championship bracket and half a point in the consolation bracket if the weight class had what was called a pigtail match AND a wrestler won his next bout. Today those “free Advancement Points” are no more. The brackets were unbalanced in 1997 as compared to today too.
While the national championship in 1997 consisted of 330 total wrestlers as it does today, some weight classes had more than 33 wrestlers per weight class while others had fewer. Today’s brackets contain exactly 33 wrestlers per weight class. Looking at the reason for the difference, one has to look no further than the rules for qualifying for the big dance. Skipping some of the details of the process, conferences filled a fixed number of NCAA qualifier entries with “wild-cards” voted on at each tournament, without regard to weight class. This caused the 1997 brackets to have as many as 38 wrestlers in one weight class, and as few as 31 in others. Today’s rigid, mathematical model determines the top-33 qualifiers for each weight class, and pre-qualification numbers are set prior to the conference tournaments. Without getting into too much detail, today’s process is more likely to get the best wrestler’s in each weight class than the process of yesteryear.
Bonus Points are extremely similar, 1997 to today, with the only difference a minor one. A 15-point advantage (Technical Fall) in 1997 was awarded 1 point if no back points were scored and 1-1/2 points if back points were scored. Today it doesn’t matter; a 15-point match termination (Technical Fall) is awarded 1-1/2 points, regardless of how the 15-point advantage was earned. One last difference was how the championship brackets were built. In 1997, the top-12 seeded wrestlers were placed in the bracket according to their seed, while all other wrestlers were placed by random draw. Today, all 33 wrestlers in each weight class are seeded and placed accordingly with no random placement. While this is a dramatic difference, and an impact on Bonus Point wins (and related points) could be argued, it is more likely that overall the impact is insignificant. It won’t be discussed here further.
My opinion is that the changes noted above make the comparison, 1997 to today, one of apples-to- oranges but close enough to continue on with this analysis. I believe though that if this record IS ever broken, the scoring differences listed above AND the 3-point takedown will be discussed ad nauseam.
1997 Iowa Hawkeyes
In the past, Coach Cael has mentioned “luck” as a component of winning a national championship. He is not wrong in my opinion. Whether it is staying injury-free or illness-free, or any of a multitude of other happenings, an ounce of good fortune is needed for a team to be full-strength for the post-season. The other side of that coin is the preparation needed for a wrestler to peak in March. To me, this means more than just the fitness level needed to face the rigors of the post-season, but also; keeping up with one’s studies, eating right, sleeping right, and so on. Being the absolute best wrestler you can be during the third weekend in March has aspects most fans don’t consider – but they are very real.
The 1997 Hawkeyes had it all; luck, preparation, talent, you name it, a perfect storm hit the mats at the University of Northern Iowa like none other in NCAA wrestling history. First off, the tournament was held a mere 90 miles from Iowa City. Being able to sleep in one’s own bed until taking the short jaunt to Cedar Falls, Iowa, and not face a rigorous travel schedule was huge. Add that to the talent-laden Iowa team that hit the mats healthy, and their collective over-achieving ways, and the point total skyrocketed to a height never seen before.
Placement points alone almost tell the whole story for the 1997 Hawkeyes. Jesse Whitmer was seeded 6th , but won the title at 118 pounds. Mike Mena (126) was seeded 4th , but ended 2nd . Mark Ironside (134) was seeded 1st and won. Kasey Gillis was unseeded and finished 6th . Lincoln McIlravey (150) was seeded 1st , and won. Joe Williams (158) was seeded 1st , and won. Mike Uker (167) was seeded 11th and finished 5th . Lee Fullhart (190) was seeded 5th and won his weight class. Only Tony Ersland (177) and Wes Hand (285) did not earn All-American honors. Both were unseeded though, and they both contributed Bonus Points and Advancement Points. Eight All-Americans, five of them champions, and not a single guy wrestled below their seed. Amazing! So amazing in fact, that the Placement Points earned by Iowa at the 1997 National Championships added a whopping 37 POINTS extra, above the predicted value based on seeding. As examples, Whitmer’s 1st Place finish earned 13 more Placement Points than his 6-seed suggested. Fullhart’s 1st Place finish earned the team 11 Placement Points more than his 5-seed would suggest. Without those 37 points alone, the 170 points is closer to 133 points, nowhere near a scoring record. It was an amazing team performance, one for the ages.
Advancement points played a lesser role. For example, Jesse Whitmer’s win at 118 pounds earned only one point more than his 6 seed would suggest. Still, every point matters, and adding up the Advancement points earned versus predicted by seed, and the Hawkeyes ended the tourney with about 6 additional Advancement Points above what was predicted by seed.
Bonus points are the last of the tournament scoring classifications. This Iowa team earned 33 bonus points, a very, very high number, regardless of year. For comparison, the highest bonus point total ever for Penn State was at the 2017 NCAA Championships with 32.5. Last year at the championships Penn State mustered a total of 16. Needless to say, the 1997 Iowa Hawkeye team was a bonus point machine, and bonus points most definitely contributed to the lofty team total.
Iowa had an amazing tournament, exceeding expectations every way possible. Three wrestlers seeded 1st , all won. Four wrestlers seeded top-12, all exceeded their seed and all became All-American’s. One unseeded wrestler finished 6th , also earning All-American honors.
2024 Penn State
Penn State has arguably its best team ever, top to bottom, and some pundits are calling it the best team ever assembled. Way too early for that, there is still a lot of work ahead. As I write this every starter is ranked in the top-11 of their weight class and five wrestlers are consensus number one. Predicting how this talented group will perform in a couple of weeks is an exercise in futility to some degree. Crazy results are not uncommon in the post-season, much more frequent than most fans know or believe. A quick look at past brackets is all it takes to be convinced. For example, looking at the 2023 NCAA Championship brackets only (not the consolation brackets), I count 66 upsets in the ten weight classes when using seeding as the measure. While most were not earth-shaking and were between close seeds, others were HUGE! Regardless, 66 is a lot. At this level, all of the wrestlers are good. One thing is for sure, based on history Penn State’s coaching staff prepares the wrestlers, physically and mentally so they peak in March better than anyone in the country, and the Lion wrestlers are more likely to beat a higher-seeded wrestler than to lose to a lower-seeded one.
I will present Penn State’s scoring potential as if they finish where they are currently ranked. Bonus points will be an educated guess.
Above, in the Tournament Scoring History section, the Placement Points are listed. Using InterMat’s rankings we have, in weight order; Braedan Davis (8), Aaron Nagao (11), Beau Bartlett (1), Tyler Kasak (9), Levi Haines (1), Mitchell Mesenbrink (6), Carter Starocci (1), Bernie Truax (6), Aaron Brooks (1), Greg Kerkvliet (1). The associated Placement Point total is 95 points. Remember that number.
Advancement is easy. For the most part finalists earn 4 points each, 3 rd and 4 th Place finishers 3.5 points, 5th and 6th Place finishers 3 points, 7th and 8th Place finishers 2.5 points and so on. The expected Advancement Point total, again based on the rankings from the last paragraph, is 32.5 points. Added to the 95 points above and the team total for these two point classifications is 127.5.
Simple math shows that, in this theoretical analysis, 42.5 Bonus Points are needed to reach 170. That is 10 points above Penn State’s highest number – EVER, and an impossible number to reach. “Impossible” doesn’t mean the analysis is over however. While 42.5 Bonus Points is out of the question, it means Placement Points and Advancement Points higher than the theoretical numbers above are needed. Remember, Iowa scored a whopping 37 Placement Points HIGHER than expected to set the record. Mentioned earlier, every Hawkeye wrestler met or exceeded their seed. Their three #1 seeds all won and five of their remaining wrestlers outperformed their seeds. Penn State will need a similar performance, though the window of opportunity is smaller. That is because Penn State has five #1 ranked wrestlers currently and a wrestler can’t outperform a #1 seed.
Bottom line, the following MUST happen for Penn State to have a chance. First, all five #1 seeds must win an individual championship. Second, the team MUST score 30 or more bonus points. Lastly, the five Penn State wrestlers not seeded #1 MUST, as a group, earn enough “extra” Placement Points above what their seeds predict, probably in the 10-15 point range to get close to the scoring record. Each of these three keys are a tall order, all three in the same tournament I would consider monumental.
So there you have it. There IS a path to more than 170 points. Much has to go right. Here are a few parting words; First, I feel badly for Shayne Van Ness. This team could actually be better with him at 149 given last season’s result. He will come back strong; I’m convinced, though he won’t be wrestling in Kansas City. Next, the 3-point takedown IS a factor in Bonus Points scored. I would not be surprised if we see more Major Decisions and Tech Falls in Kansas City than in any prior NCAA Championship. There is a thought out there that it could lower the number of Falls we see, though I’m not convinced of that.
Lastly, Cael recently said that college wrestling is just a game. The comment was intended to put wins and losses (and records and other such things) into context. College wrestling is above all supposed to be fun and enjoyable – for wrestlers, fans, coaches and administrators alike. It puts this entire article into perspective. If a record happens, it happens, in the mean-time enjoy the wrestling!
