March 13, 2026
By Allen Smith
PREFACE & BACKGROUND
For those that have followed along during the past two seasons, this is the fifth in a series of articles that has taken on the topic of the NCAA Wrestling Championship scoring record as it relates to Penn State wrestling. The plan in early March, 2024 was to write one article before the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships in Kansas City, then let the scoring results of the Penn State team that year speak for itself. Then a new record was set and between encouragement from friends and my own healthy intrigue regarding the new record, and voilà – I decided to dissect the 2024 results by writing a previously unplanned article which became the second in the series. And the rest is history, as they say. The 2025 team then proved to be another “best” version of Penn State wrestling, scoring-wise, and two more before-and-after-the-NCAA-Championship articles were written last year.
PAST ARTICLES
The first article, “Chasing 170”, was written March 6, 2024, before the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships, and dove deeply into the topic of Iowa’s record 170 team points, set in 1997, and the chances of the 2024 Penn State team exceeding that total. Presented were all of the facts from the 1997 Hawkeye team; the amazing performance of their wrestlers during Coach Dan Gable’s last season at Iowa’s helm, and what it would take to go higher than those 170 points for the 2024 Lion squad. The Iowa record was never really threatened since being set in 1997, the closest being the John Smith-coached Oklahoma State team of 2005 with 153 points, followed by Penn State’s 146.5 points in 2017 as the closest, so a challenge to the record in 2024 was a big deal. That first article contains the greatest amount of detail regarding tournament scoring, rule changes and much more, setting the foundation for all articles that followed. My research was months-long, leaving no stone unturned. “Chasing 170: The Sequel” followed in late March, 2024, breaking down Penn State’s record-setting performance at the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships; a new record with 172.5 team points. “Chasing 172.5, A New Season” was the third in the series, published in early March, 2025, analyzing Penn State’s chances of setting an even higher record at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships. Then in April, 2025, “Chasing 172.5: 2025, Another New Record!!” became the fourth and last so far in the series, dissecting Penn State’s new record at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships, 177 team points. All of those articles are available on the Penn State Wrestling Club website, though they are buried under “News”, chronologically listed.
Much territory was covered in those past four articles, first explaining the basics of tournament scoring, rule changes and more – especially in the first article – which gave context to what followed. With the basics covered, THEORETICAL point-scoring could be extracted in a logical, unbiased way using the Penn State wrestler’s seeds at the NCAA Wrestling Championships for the articles written before each championship. Then after the 2024 and 2025 championships, the actual results could be presented in detail. The logic behind the four previous articles is sound, as is the logic for what follows in this article, but – and this is a big “but” – what happens at the wrestling championships each March is oft-times surprising, making even logical, thorough research futile when compared to actual results. But then, that is what makes the NCAA Wrestling Championships so much fun!
THE PROCESS EXPLAINED
My plan of attack for 2026 is identical to that used in 2024 and 2025. After the NCAA Wrestling Selection Show this year on Wednesday, March 11, the compiling of data and facts for the theoretical scoring used for this article was begun. Actual wrestler seeds for the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships were used to calculate their theoretical points for ADVANCEMENT and PLACEMENT, and then an educated guess for BONUS Points was determined. The method to my madness is actually pretty sound, but it is still theoretical.
Before introducing the Penn State team and their seeds, I will relive the 2026 Big Ten Wrestling Championship for just a moment. The Lions won handily with a Penn State record 184 team points, the conference’s highest since Iowa scored 185 in 1995, 31 years ago! The Nittany Lions head to Cleveland as the odds-on favorite for the NCAA Wrestling Championship with a team that consists of seven conference champions, one second place finisher, a sixth place finisher and a seventh place finisher.
INTRODUCING THE 2026 TEAM
Heading to Cleveland, the Lion wrestler and seeds are as follows; Luke Lilledahl (125 pounds, #1), Marcus Blaze (133, #3), Braeden Davis (141, #14), Shayne Van Ness (149, #1), P.J. Duke (157, #1), Mitchell Mesenbrink (165, #1), Levi Haines (174, #1), Rocco Welsh (184, #1), Josh Barr (197, #1) and Cole Mirasola (285, #9). This team is loaded on paper, but wrestling bouts are not wrestled on paper. Next step is assigning the ADVANCEMENT POINTS and PLACEMENT POINTS, based on the assumption that each wrestler finishes the tournament at their seeded position. This is a bold assumption some might say and I would agree, but in my view the most logical one to make, though there is a trap. Seven (7) number one seeds having no “upside” except BONUS POINT scoring is risky business, which will be discussed later.
THEORETICAL POINT BREAKDOWNS
There are only three ways to score points at any tournament; PLACEMENT POINTS, ADVANCEMENT POINTS, and BONUS POINTS. This fact makes the math simple enough if familiar with all three. PLACEMENT POINTS are fixed. Only the top eight wrestlers get them along with the distinction of being called “All-American”. These points are as follows, from first through eighth place; 16 points (1st ), 12 (2nd ), 10 (3rd ), 9 (4th ), 7 (5th ), 6 (6th ), 4 (7th ) and 3 (8th ). With seven number one seeds, one third seed, a ninth seed and a 14 seed, the total is 122 points (112 points for the seven number one seeds, plus 10 points for the lone number three seed). Easy-peasy! The theoretical PLACEMENT POINTS are “0” for two Penn State wrestlers.
Next is ADVANCEMENT POINTS, which are also fixed, based on a wrestler’s finish. In all but a few rare cases, it works out like this; 4 points (1st ), 4 (2nd ), 3.5 (3rd ), 3.5 (4th ), 3 (5th ), 3 (6th ), 2.5 (7th ), 2.5 (8th ), 2 (9th through 12th ), 1.5 (13th through 16th ). Again, the math is easy. Just add up the points for seven first place finishers (28 points), plus one third (3.5), plus one ninth (2), plus one 14 th (1.5), for a total of 35 ADVANCEMENT POINTS. Again, easy-peasy! Adding to the PLACEMENT POINTS above, the total is now 157 team points and we are almost at a theoretical total team points.
BONUS POINTS are the hardest to theorize. We know that Penn State’s championship teams of 2024 and 2025 set Penn State BONUS POINT scoring records of 34 points and 34.5 points respectively. Both were huge factors in the record setting performances of those two teams. The two teams prior; 2023 (16 Bonus points), and 2022 (16.5 Bonus points) were national championship teams too, but were not “built” as a team for as many Bonus Points. Here I paused to look at the Bonus point potential for 2026. Knowing full well that we have two Bonus Point machines in Mesenbrink and Barr, Penn State also has several wrestlers in the 50% bonus point range for the season, plus or minus. With 24 total bonus point
wins in 2025, and extrapolating for 2026, an educated guess is more in the 15 to 19 range for Bonus
Point wins, calculating to a range of 21 to 27 points. Five Penn State wrestlers had three or more Bonus
point wins at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships, and three others had two each. That amazing
result, as I see it, will be hard to duplicate in 2026. I would give the chance as slim.
Drumroll please! Adding up the theoretical points and the total is in the range of 178 to 184. That is not
the end of the story however. A discussion and conclusion section will follow to wrap things up.
DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
Penn State is the odds-on favorite to win the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Team Championship. No one can refute that fact. After winning the team title in 2024 by 100 points and 2025 by 60 points, the Lions on paper have as good a team as either year and should win handily. In sport there are no guarantees however, so wrestling well is still needed. Winning the team championship is not the question to be answered in this article however. The chances of this year’s Penn State team topping the 2025 team record of 177 points IS the question to be answered. At first glance, the numbers above look promising, so I looked deeper. Staring at me first are the seven number one seeds. Never before, in NCAA wrestling history, has a team had more than five individual champions. That feat was accomplished five times in history. Yet that is a key factor in setting a new record. FACT: A top seeded wrestler gets four PLACEMENT POINTS less than my theoretical number by finishing second. None of the seven top-seeded wrestlers have upside scoring potential – a wrestler can’t finish higher than first place – so the points dynamic is a one-sided one, anything but perfection is lower points as compared to my theoretical numbers. There is a path to a new record with six champions, while five champs in 2026 mean something herculean must happen elsewhere. The theoretical range noted above is 178 to 184 points. Those points are at the high end of a near-perfect tournament, after looking at each wrestler and their path.
The three wrestlers not seeded number one DO have upside scoring potential compared to the
theoretical numbers. All three exceeding their seed would add points compared to the PLACEMENT
Points noted earlier, which is good news in a theoretical sense. The challenge is that there is a four point
differential between first and second place, while only a one to two point difference between any of the
other placements (two points between 2nd and 3rd , one point between 3rd and 4th , two points between 4th and 5th , and so on). Offsetting a single loss for a top-seeded wrestler will require a more significant result from the three wrestlers not seeded number one. That said, an All-American finish from nine of Penn State’s 10 wrestlers or 10 of 10 would go a long way. I see 10 All-American finishes as possible in a
cautiously optimistic sort of way.
BONUS POINTS was discussed more thoroughly above, but a few additional discussion points need to be
made here. 12 Bonus points were scored by Penn State wrestlers in 2025 in the consolation (wrestleback) brackets. This year’s team, by my research, must have a high number of individual champs to set a new record. This means fewer matches overall and less chances for BONUS POINT wins. To explain, a wrestler that finishes first or second has five total bouts, while a wrestler finishing third through sixth will have six or seven bouts, depending on their path. I predict Penn State wrestlers in 2026 wrestling as many as five fewer bouts than their 2025 counterparts in total.
My conclusion is a fairly simple one; the potential for a new record, in a theoretical sense, is possible, but there is little room for error, even less room that the 2025 team had heading into the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships. Ending with 10 All-Americans, and winning 16 of 17 wrestled bouts in the consolation bracket with 12 Bonus Points along the way were key in 2025. 10 All-Americans in 2026 would go a long way, as an extra six points minimum (two 8th Place finishes) could be added to the theoretical numbers, but having as many bouts in wrestebacks would mean several top seeds lost earlier than the finals in the championship bracket. That would be a huge point-earning hit for the Lions. I will let you, the reader determine how possible 10 All-Americans are!
That ends my analysis. While only theoretical, I hope that the ins-and-outs, and twists-and-turns of the wins and losses at the NCAA Wrestling Championships and how they affect team scores is obvious. This year, as with every year, each wrestler’s path is loaded with landmines. Being loose and having fun, embracing the opportunity goes a long way towards amazing results. No one does that better than Penn State. Enjoy the wrestling folks, regardless if viewing it live and in-person, watching or streaming on your device of choice, or listening to Jeff Byers on the radio!!
WE ARE!
